Chrysalis

This article appeared in the Evening Echo on Monday January 12th 2015…

So 2015 has started with a bang (more like a whimper) politically with Lucinda finally telling us what we all already knew, she is starting a party.

Well she is telling us that she will be starting a party just not right now, I think!

So that is the ‘Right’ sorted now it’s just down to the ‘Left’ to compete if they can. 2014 was definitely the year of the Independent with poll after poll showing support for this grouping (if you can call it that) growing steadily.

Why do I say in the title of this piece ‘Be Careful What You Wish For’ well it is simple really. In a clamor for difference and change politically people are pinning their hopes on the Independents & Others bracket. However, you have to ask how this bracket will be reflected on a Ballot Paper and by how many candidates in each constituency.

Take for example Cork South Central, my own constituency, it is set to be a four seater in the next election and it currently has five TD’s in situ.  Now take a closer look at who these TD’s are; from the government ranks you have one Heir apparent and two Lieutenants; from the main opposition you have the Prince and the pretender. Add to this mix a strong Sinn Fein candidate in Chris O’Leary and you now have six ‘Party’ candidates vying for four seats. A hard battle at the best of times; so when you drop in anything up to ten possible Independents the result starts to become more rather than less predictable, more of the same.
Predictable? Surely the variety of candidates should make the destiny of the four seats less predictable. Not necessarily if you think about it. The polls are saying that up to 40%+ of the electorate want to vote Independent/Other/Don’t Know. Much of this group are basing this on the lure of high profile existing Independent public representatives as well as a smattering of loud local voices. The reality in many cases here is that voters won’t have a Shane Ross or a Stephen Donnelly on their ballot paper. So when the election is called and the rush to be the ‘LEADING’ Independent in Cork South Central begins it will, in my opinion, fragment the vote so much as to return four of the sitting five TD’s. This scenario will also play out in a number of other constituencies.
So what am I saying? Well basically that the populist rush toward Independents, with no structure or cohesive policy focus will result in too many candidates trying to appeal to too many voters solidifying the status quo. Fine Gael can see this and that is why they are focusing their guns on Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein will win seats in a lot of constituencies, in some cases due to the drop in Labour support in others because of Independents. In constituencies where a large number of Independents appear they will quickly disappear as the votes are counted and we will see a lot of their transfers heading toward Sinn Fein in the main allowing them to pick up the last seat in a lot of the four and five seaters.

Looking at Fine Gael’s approach is telling again when it comes to the emergence of the Reform Alliance as a ‘possible’, ‘soon to be’, and ‘much promised’ political party. A new party on the Right who will pick up the inevitable slack from Fine Gael supporters who do not feel they can give them their number one, for now, will vote for the Reform Alliance one and Fine Gael two/three. In many of these cases this will essentially be a vote for Fine Gael as many Reform Alliance candidates will not be winners this time. In cases where the Reform Alliance do win seats it is a better result for Fine Gael than if the seat went FF/SF or other as the Reform Alliance will most likely make up some element of the next government with Fine Gael.

In all this where do Labour fit? It is hard to see a place for them right now. However, I do think there is an opportunity for that party to rescue some of the lost ground but it will take bravery and new thinking. Just as Lucinda has plotted a new way for the Reform Alliance on the Right there is a chance for the same to happen on the Left. TD’s like Catherine Murphy and others have been talking too, they have been looking to see how they can work together to form an alternative for the voters. How does Labour fit into this; right now they don’t but they could.
Irish politics needs someone on the left of centre to balance the system; now before you say it I do not put Sinn Fein in this bracket because I feel they are a centrist/populist party at their core, something that will be borne out if they make it into the next government. So how do I see Labour taking this ground? They need to reach out; they need to grasp it hard and fast with bold actions and inclusive thinking.

Labour should offer an opportunity to the likes of Catherine Murphy for example to shadow a Minister/Junior Minister and have a say in or influence over policy for the remainder of this government. I know what why would Independents do it; surely it would be better to stay on their own and win the seat, possibly but is that better for Ireland I would argue that it is not. This approach would be novel, it would strengthen the Left and it would make Labour itself stronger. Fine Gael may not be too happy with this approach it may even offer Labour the ‘get of jail card’ they may need ahead of the next election if they are to survive.

So what do I predict for 2015; there will be a new party of the right, we already know the reform Alliance is on the way. Fine Gael will call a November election after a bumper (ish) budget in October. Labour won’t reach out in a bold and visionary way to grasp the Left voice and reclaim their position. Too many Independents will run in all constituencies and will dilute the vote so much that most won’t be successful. All this will result in a status quo of sorts with a centre/centre right grouping making up a government that will last maybe 18 months. So again Independents in 2015 be careful what you wish for.