Chrysalis

This is my opinion piece which appeared in Monday’s Evening Echo.

So it is that time again, the start of a new year and the predictions are coming at us thick and fast. China’s economy will collapse when their banks implode. IS will launch a major offensive on European soil. Brendan O’Carroll will be nominated for an Oscar for best actor, best screenplay, best producer, best director and so on and so on for Mrs. Browns Boys 2.0…
So why should I be any different?
I start each year by drafting up some ill thought out political predictions that I hope will make me sound clever and informed, well here we go again. 2016 is an exciting year if you are an anorak like me but it is not the centenary that has me all a googoo it is the election. We are likely to head to the polls on February 26th (my sources for what they are worth agree) and we will be asked to elect either a government or a mess. What will we choose?
I have previously written about the possibility that the rush to Independents will do no more than secure the status quo and nothing has changed for me really. While poll after poll is showing the Independent vote growing or holding in the high 20% range this ignores the complexity of our electoral system and the vagaries of local constituency matters.
Take Cork’s five constituencies as an example, in Cork South Central we have four seats on offer and five sitting TD’s. Some have predicted Sinn Fein may make a gain here but they have not selected Chris O’Leary who brought them close at the last election, their candidate is likely to do well but the talk is division in the ranks and the possibility of either adding O’Leary or his running as an Independent will kill the chance of a seat for them, in my humble opinion. North of the river holds similar issues for Sinn Fein with talk again doing the rounds that they are have an internal battle that could see them jeopardise the seat of their TD Johnathan O’Brien. Of course we all remember the fighting in Cork East which has all but ruined the chance of a seat there. So overall Sinn Fein is likely to return, if lucky, with what they hold now so no gains.
The makeup of the five constituencies is such that Independent wins in Cork overall are close to impossible. As mentioned South Central is losing a seat so it is hard to see past a Fine Gael/Fianna Fail sharing of the spoils with Labour losing out; the last election saw double digit Independent candidates (of which I was one) with Mick Finn the only one to break 2000 he is likely to show well again this time but not well enough to take a win. This will mean that the fractured Independent vote will never get the momentum needed to transfer in any meaningful way to elect one of the many running.
This will be similar in the North side constituency with Mick Barry likely to be the leader of the pack but I just cannot see where he will get the transfers from in enough numbers to stay in there long enough, so it is more likely he will help ensure Kathleen Lynch saves the seat for Labour. Therefore there is likely to be no change here.
The more rural constituencies are well established and well settled by the main parties at this stage so the likelihood of a breakthrough there is very slim. Take Cork East with its large populated areas spread across the constituencies like Cobh, Youghal, Midleton, Fermoy and so on acting like little fiefdom’s, Cobh vote rarely leaves the Island for example. This makes it difficult for a new or an Independent candidate to gain the traction needed outside of their own local area to win a seat. Add to this the Sinn Fein turmoil and it looks likely that Fine Gael will hold their two just and Fianna Fail will retain or gain off Fine Gael and with Labour likely to hold with Sherlock there is a seat up for grabs as I feel Sinn Fein will self-destruct spectacularly leaving room for a possible gain for a new party candidate (unlikely) or an Independent (hard to see) most likely Fianna Fail will sneak it.
Heading West it is a similar story. South West may offer a seat to a strong candidate from the Clonakilty or Bandon region with Labour’s McCarthy weakest. Fine Gael need to manage the votes Jim Daly will hoover up if they are to spread enough beyond the mountains to save Harrington; this may be too mammoth a task. However, if Labour go out and transfer strongly to Fine Gael he may just hold on. The likely new face here will be an old Fianna Fail face I assume. North of the border will be little different. Fianna Fail should hold its seat and may even gain from Fine Gael. This constituency if looked at going back over many elections is one that swings between the two mainstream parties time after time and 2016 will be no different.
So distilling all that down to simple numbers would see Fine Gael go into the election with nine seats and likely to return with 8; Fianna Fail will go in with 4 and return with 7; Labour will go in with 4 and will return 2; Sinn Fein will go in with 2 and will return 1, Independents will go in with 0 and will return 0. So looking at Cork’s five constituency’s as a bell weather it is hard to look past Fine Gael returning with the help of Labour again either with enough seats to cling to a majority or with a fractured enough opposition to hold it together.
One prediction I made last year however that I feel still holds is that we are entering a period of political flux like that of the Charlie V Gareth days with numerous elections one after the other in relative quick succession. This will mean a return to auction politics at a time when the coffers are beginning to, if not swell at least bulge. The pity is our politicians will have learned nothing because we the electorate will not have thought them any real lesson.
Happy New Year.